June 17, 2008 13:37:25
Posted By Peter Bentley
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When I wrote The Undercover Scientist I (perhaps naively) never thought in a million
years I would get questions like this... But today I did. Here's how I responded (part 1).
1) Ordinary people have long known that computers crash
on deadline and cars break down in emergencies, while previous studies have shown the law, also
called Sod's Law, is not a myth and toast really does fall buttered side down. But in 2004 a panel
of experts (David Lewis, matematico Philip Obadya e Keelan Leyser) has provided the statistical
rule for predicting the law of "anything that can go wrong, will go wrong" - or ((U+C+I) x (10-
S))/20 x A x 1/(1-sin(F/10)).
So, do you think it is possible to break Murphy's Law?
The Undercover Scientist is about those everyday mishaps that happen without blame or
fault. I use each mishap to open the door to scientific principles that explain our behaviour and
the technology we use. I'm afraid there is no sound scientific evidence that shows Sod's Law or
Murphy's Law is anything more than a misconception - toast does not have a tendency to fall in
the way we do not want it to. Sometimes things go wrong when we're stressed and working to a
tight deadline, but this is because we make mistakes and we inadvertently stress our technology
until it fails - there are lots of examples of this in the book. However, there is certainly evidence
to show that if you believe in such "laws" and your behaviour is affected by your own superstitious
beliefs then the result will be as though such laws exist. Your superstitious beliefs cause you to
act differently from normal and cause the very mishaps you are afraid of. Thus Murphy's Law is
nothing more than a construct in your own mind - to break it, just don't believe in it.
2) Why do you chose this topic?
I am a scientist who is trying to show how exciting and interesting science really is. The
whole purpose of the book is to show there is always a rational (and often fascinating, fun and
exciting) explanation for all the everyday events that happen to us. It shows that superstition
really has nothing to do with misfortune. What really counts is the physics, chemistry, biology that
underlies us and our technology.
3) "Fortune is blind, but bad luck has perfect eyesight". Is
it true?
It is only true if you make it so for yourself. Personally I am a strong believer that we
make our own luck - if you want something good to happen, then push for it; if something
happens that you don't like, then turn it into something positive by learning from it. Again, this is
what The Undercover Scientist does - it provides fascinating and entertaining new knowledge
from mishaps.
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